So is this the Happy New Year you’ve been waiting for? Well, don’t pop the Champagne cork yet because as with lunch, free is sometimes illusory — and with this policy, the guys at the top can get shut out. Here’s how I handicap the change for the various elite-status levels.

Lower-Tier Elites
Plus: Congratulations, book full-fare economy and you’re likely to be the owner of a First Class seat, since you can confirm an upgrade on these fares at time of ticketing. It should work wonderfully when you can plan a business trip in advance. If your company won’t let you expense the cost to upgrade, now you’re not even out of pocket.

Minus: Booking a heavily discounted economy fare? It’s back of the bus, pal. By the time your upgrade can be confirmed, there will seldom be any seats left since the new policy opens the front cabin to all those at the higher tiers who wouldn’t ordinarily spring for the upgrade fee. The early birds get the worms.

Top-Tier Elites
Plus: Attention road warriors who can’t expense purchased upgrades and were too frugal to spring for one: You’re getting the free lunch. Bon appetit!

Minus: You’re a member of the highest tier, and you need to make a booking and upgrade on short notice, or make a last-minute change to your existing itinerary. You may find that being a big shot isn’t what it used to be. You know all those guys who report to the guys who report to you? With the ever-flowing free upgrades, they’ve got your seat. And United Elites listen up. Because you can only upgrade on the day of departure, you and your partner, US Airways, are now in a long-distance relationship when it comes to upgrading to First. Maybe you’ll see each other twice a year. But you know what they say about absence.

Conclusion
The big change at US Airways and Delta is the time-of-ticketing upgrade. Both carriers are forsaking the revenue that comes from selling upgrades, in an attempt to gain the loyalty of the business traveler flying on full-fare. In the end, the airlines want the full-fare business — their business model is built on it. Both US Airways and Delta are threatened by low-cost carriers; this is a way of neutralizing them. Although the new upgrade policy is great for some, it could freeze out the big spenders making changes and flying last-minute, and dilute the value for lower-tier members.

American and United offer free upgrades to full-fare travelers, but only 24 to 100 hours prior to departure — not at the time of ticketing. (I’ve heard estimates that American generates $100+ million from domestic upgrade sales.) This policy makes more sense to me. It allows these carriers to please their high-yield travelers according to the fare they paid and their status, and gives most of their elite members who are willing to pay for an upgrade the opportunity to do it successfully the better part of the time.